Once I had this data point, my next step was to look at the top-scoring teams year over year. With this information, I took the average variance percentage over the last five years. At the same time, the Minnesota Wild and Sabres have seen a lot of variability year over year in their shooting. The Toronto Maple Leafs and Tampa Bay Lightning have been two of the top-scoring teams for the last five years and their shooting has seen little change year over year. I pulled together the chart below looking at two teams with some consistency in their shooting and two teams that have had inconsistency. As I said, this isn’t the case for every team. This starts to give us a glimpse into the variability in scoring. To make sure everyone understands the math here, a team with a 10% shooting percentage in 2021-22 that had an 11% variance regression would have had an 8.9% shooting percentage in 2022-23. Then 2019-20 to 2020-21 and so on.īelow were the results on average variance percentages. I started with the change from the 2018-19 to the 2019-20 season. The first thing I did was look at the year-over-year variance of every team from one season to the next. Every situation would be different, but I’m comfortable with that assumption. That could directly result in a standings change of an estimated three to four wins. That doesn’t seem like a big change, but in some cases, it’s a difference of 15-20 goals. The good scoring teams will usually find themselves at the top of the league consistently but they’ll fluctuate between 4th one year and then 10th the following season. Scoring on a year-over-year basis is something that has a good amount of volatility in it. It’s also a stat that everyone understands. I could have looked at goals scored over expected, but shooting percentage was the cleanest way to look at it. I also focused on shooting percentage as the primary area for the year-over-year change. Also, when it comes to the Sabres, the power play is something we’ll get into.
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It’s best to get the full scoring picture for this discussion. Focusing on just 5 on 5 wouldn’t be helpful with how important power play scoring is for some teams.
The data that you’re going to see here is based on the last five years (2018-19 to 2022-23). Therefore, I decided to break out some data points that regression models would use in generating projections on scoring. One of the reasons we cited for it was the likelihood that they would see regression in their scoring.Īfter that episode, I thought to myself that fans might not fully understand what that means or how impactful it would be in the standings. On last week’s episode of Expected Buffalo | Th e Podcast we talked about how the Buffalo Sabres, in their current state, would be projected as a mid-80 point team in public models.
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